Assessing Mortality Risk from Heat Stress due to Global Warming

With gradually progressing climate change in the future, the frequency and scale of hot summers like those observed in various places around the world in recent years will undoubtedly increase, giving rise to strong concerns over increased risk of death due to heat stress. Based on this background, we have developed a method to assess future changes in mortality due to heat stress with the entire globe as the target, and performed trial calculations using this method. The purpose of this report is to draw people's attention to the possible severe consequences of climate change by presenting the severest estimates in the uncertainty range due to adaptation/acclimation expected in the future, so as to induce further analysis and discussion on policies and measures. For the trial calculations, future changes in temperature were derived from the results of simulation using an Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Model with the highest spatial resolution in the world at the time of the study. Population densities were assumed not to alter in the future. Assuming that no adaptation or acclimation takes place, when the rates of change of excess mortality due to heat stress are examined by country, the results of our calculations show increases of approximately 100% to 1000%. It is confirmed that the burden of climate change impact is quite unequal among countries, at least from the viewpoint of heat stress mortality. When considered together with present population densities, significant increases in excess mortality density can be seen in China, India, and Europe. These regions are characterized by large losses due to climate change in absolute quantitative terms. The need to consider the adoption of adaptation measures is therefore most urgent in these regions.     

Average employee tenure,voluntary turnover ratio,and labour productivity: evidence from Japanese firms

Using Japanese firms' data, this study shows that voluntary turnover ratio is negatively related to firm labour productivity. While recent studies have reported the negative influence of turnover on organizational performance (Kacmar et al., 2006 Kacmar, K.M., Andrews, M.C., van Rooy, D.L., Steilberg, R.C. and Cerrone, S. 2006. Sure Everyone can be Replaced… But at What Cost? Turnover as a Predictor of Unit-Level Performance. Academy of Management Journal, 49: 133–44. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]; Shaw et al., 2005a Shaw, J.D., Gupta, N. and Delery, J.E. 2005a. Alternative Conceptualizations of the Relationship between Voluntary Turnover and Organizational Performance. Academy of Management Journal, 48: 50–68. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), they analysed only US samples. Our study contributes to researchers' efforts to generalize the relationship between voluntary turnover and organizational performance. Turnover is detrimental to labour productivity as it reduces the stock of firm-specific human capital that a firm retains. Findings suggest that firm average employee tenure mediates the relationship between voluntary turnover and labour productivity.     

The Usefulness of Accrual Information in Non‐mandatory Environments: The Case of Japanese Local Government

This study investigates how accrual accounting is used in a system in which it co‐exists with cash accounting. It uses a survey methodology to explore the factors that influence the extent to which accrual information is useful for decision making, when used in a dual system. The results show that although accrual information was used less for budgeting, evaluation, asset management or debt management, officials found accrual information useful for performance management. Moreover, neither experience nor leadership significantly contributed to decision‐making effectiveness. The study also found that the central government was the most influential promoter of accrual accounting in Japan. Of particular interest is the link between performance measurement and accrual information.     

Market Share Instability and the Dynamics of Competition: a Panel Data Analysis of Japanese Manufacturing Industries

This paper explores market share instability as a measure of market mobility. Using a newly constructed panel data set, we examine the determinants of the market share instability of leading firms in Japanese manufacturing industries. The findings suggest that there is a significant relationship between concentration and market share instability, and the market shares of leading firms are more stable in highly concentrated industries. We also provide evidence that industry growth has a significantly positive effect on market share instability.     

Soil and water conservation technologies: a buffer against production risk in the face of climate change? Insights from the Nile basin in Ethiopia

This study investigates the impact of different soil and water conservation (SWC) technologies on the variance of crop production in Ethiopia to determine the risk implications of the different technologies in different regions and rainfall zones. Given the production risks posed by climate change, such information can be used by decision makers to identify appropriate agricultural practices that act as a buffer against climate change. Results show that SWC investments perform differently in different rainfall areas and regions of Ethiopia and that the effectiveness of technologies such as irrigation, fertilizer, and improved seeds often depends on whether these investments are coupled with SWC measures. These results underscore the importance of the selection of appropriate combinations of technologies and careful geographical targeting when promoting and scaling up SWC technologies for adaptation to climate change.     

Development and validation of a situational judgement test of Japanese leadership knowledge

ABSTRACT

Leadership research has accumulated a wealth of empirical findings about what leadership behaviours are effective in various business environments. We took advantage of these empirical findings to develop a situational judgement test (SJT) of leadership knowledge with correct answers. The SJT contains four leadership dimensions: task-focused, relationship-focused, transformational, and developmental leadership. Item response theory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to examine the psychometric properties of the SJT, based on a sample of 658 Japanese college students. Ultimately, we confirmed a four-factor model and retained 21 of 53 situation questions for the final SJT.     

Assessing the performance of inflation targeting in East Asian economies

This paper examines the implementation and performance of inflation targeting (IT) in four East Asian emerging market economies: Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. It also examines monetary policy in Malaysia, a country that has not adopted IT. The study estimates policy reaction functions to test the links between the adoption of IT and use of a monetary policy rule. The impulse responses of prices to a monetary policy shock are also estimated to identify monetary policy impacts on prices. The findings on the monetary policies of the five economies can be summarised as follows. Korea has taken an inflation‐responsive and forward‐looking policy stance under inflation targeting, which has had an effect on the stability of prices. Indonesia and Thailand have conducted inflation‐responsive but backward‐looking policy stances, which have had no impact in terms of price stabilisation. The Philippines (which adopted IT but under a pegged exchange rate regime) and Malaysia have neither followed inflation‐responsive rules nor had policy impacts in terms of controlling inflation.     

Can margin traders predict future stock returns in Japan?

A growing body of literature suggests that investor sentiment affects stock prices both at the firm level and at the market level. This study examines the relationship between investor behavior and stock returns focusing on Japanese margin transactions using weekly data from 1994 to 2003. Margin trading is dominated by individual investors in Japan. In analysis at the firm level, we find a significant cross-sectional relationship between margin buying and stock returns. Both market-level and firm-level analyses show that margin buying traders follow herding behavior. They seem to follow positive feedback trading behavior for small-firm stocks and negative feedback trading behavior for large firm stocks. Our results show that information about margin buying helps predict future stock returns, especially for small-firm stocks at short horizons. The predictive power does not diminish even after controlling for firm size and liquidity.     

Markups,productivity and external market development of the service SMEs

During the last decade, economists and policy makers have extensively discussed what types of firms can exploit external markets by exporting and what happens to domestic firms if external competitors penetrate into the home market. Although both theoretical and empirical studies have been dedicated to these issues, few have been carried out for the service sector. Since the service sector accounts for the lion’s share of GDP, the lack of those studies indicates that a large part of the actual economy still remains veiled. Our study fills this gap. We examine whether or not the Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) model remains satisfied in the service sector, using data from Japanese SMEs. From our analysis, we confirm that larger market sizes are associated with higher productivity levels. On the other hand, firms with higher markups tend to develop their business in smaller markets, conditional of the simultaneity between production and consumption. These results reveal that further productivity growth in the service sector also requires markets to be larger and more integrated. In addition, the markup levels become lower in those markets.